Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates

Tropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of tropical oceans, but far enough off equator allow planetary rotation cause aggregating convection spin up into coherent vortices. Yet, current prognostic frameworks for TC make contradictory predictions climate change. Simulations past climates, such Eocene Pliocene, show that TCs can intensify higher than those during pre-industrial conditions. Observations model projections twenty-first century indicate may again migrate poleward in response anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which poses profound risks planet’s most populous regions. Previous studies largely neglected complex processes occur temporal spatial scales individual storms these are poorly resolved numerical models. Here we review this mesoscale physics context responses warming Hadley circulation, jet streams Intertropical Convergence Zone. We conclude will probably occupy a broader range 3 million years low-latitude genesis be supplemented increasing mid-latitude favourability, although precise estimates future migration remain beyond methodologies. Hurricanes typhoons tracking further due effects change, according synthesis modelling results, observations palaeoclimate records.